Amber Integrated Releases Survey of Likely GOP Run-Off Election Voters

OKLAHOMA CITY – The Oklahoma-based public affairs firm, Amber Integrated, has released a survey measuring the political opinions of Republicans likely to vote in the Aug. 23 run-off primary elections. The survey was conducted from Aug. 11-15, 2022, and included a pool of 684 likely GOP run-off voters in Oklahoma.  It has a margin of error of 3.8% at a 95% confidence interval. 

Crosstabs are available for download here:

 Key findings regarding upcoming elections for statewide office are below:

 U.S. Senate

  • Congressman Markwayne Mullin leads former Oklahoma Speaker of the House T.W. Shannon in the race to replace Jim Inhofe. Forty-nine percent of respondents say they plan on voting for Mullin or “lean towards” voting for Mullin, compared to 31 percent for Shannon and 20 percent who remain undecided.

 State Superintendent of Public Instruction

  • Secretary of Education Ryan Walters holds a 14-point lead over Shawnee Superintendent April Grace. Forty percent of respondents say they plan on or “lean towards” voting for Walters, versus 26 percent who say the same of Grace. Thirty-four percent are undecided.

Oklahoma State Treasurer

  • Representative Todd Russ is in a virtual tie with former State Senator Clark Jolley in the race for State Treasurer, with Russ garnering 28 percent of the vote to Jolley’s 27 percent. Forty-six percent of voters are undecided.

Corporation Commissioner

  • State Sen. Kim David, who 36 percent of respondents say they will vote for or “lean towards” voting for, has a double-digit lead over former House Rep. Todd Thomsen, who has support from 23 percent of respondents. Forty-one percent remain undecided.

Labor Commissioner

  • Incumbent Labor Commissioner Leslie Osborn leads Rep. Sean Roberts by 21 percent. Osborn has the support of 42 percent of respondents versus Roberts’ 21 percent. Thirty-six percent remain undecided.

 

In addition to evaluating the support of candidates in the Aug. 23 run-off elections, Amber Integrated asked 684 Republican respondents about their opinions on abortion, Donald Trump, and their preference for a GOP nominee in the upcoming presidential election.

Key findings are below:

Abortion

  • Sixty-two percent of likely Republican run-off voters believe abortion should be allowed only in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. Nineteen percent believe it should never be allowed. Twelve percent say it should be permitted at any stage of pregnancy.

FBI Raid of Mar-a-Lago

  • Almost eight in ten (79%) of Republican run-off voters believe that the FBI’s execution of a search warrant in former President Trump’s home was a “politically motivated abuse of the justice system.” Just 14 percent believe it was a “legitimate law enforcement action.”

Trump Breaking Laws?

  • Sixty-seven percent of Republican run-off voters believe that former President Trump either “definitely” or “probably” did not break any laws.  Just one-in-four Republicans believe he did.

Trump for President

  • If Trump seeks the GOP nomination for president in 2024, 50 percent of Republican run-off voters say they will vote for him. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in at a distant second place with 22 percent support. No other candidate breaks single digits.

 Trump Alternatives

  • If Trump does not seek the GOP nomination for president, DeSantis begins with a commanding lead in Oklahoma, with 49 percent of Republican run-off voters saying they would support him. Former Vice President Mike Pence garners 10 percent support, with no other candidate breaking single digits.

PollingJackson Lislepolls, Markwayne Mullin, TW Shannon