Quarterly Poll Reveals Voters are More Concerned About COVID, More Negative About State Trajectory

OKLAHOMA CITY – The Oklahoma-based public affairs firm Amber Integrated has released a survey measuring voter attitudes about elected leaders and other political issues and current events. The full survey results are available here. This survey was conducted from September 29-October 3, 2021, and included a pool of 500 registered voters in Oklahoma. This survey has a margin of error of 4.38% at a 95% confidence interval. 

Key findings include:

 

  • Voter attitudes about the direction of the state have grown more negative since June.

    • In June 2021, our survey showed that 63% of all voters, including majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents all thought the state of Oklahoma was moving in the right direction, with just 37% saying it was on the wrong track.

    • In October, we see an increasingly negative mood reflected in the survey, with 49% saying the state is headed in the right direction, a 14-point drop, and 46% saying it is on the wrong track. Democrats are particularly negative, with just 1 in 3 Democrats saying the state is on the right track.

  • COVID has resurfaced as a major public concern.

    • In June 2020, just 8% of all voters listed COVID-19 as a primary public policy concern, making it a lower priority than jobs and the economy, education, immigration, health care and law and order.

    • In October, however, 20% of all voters now view COVID as a priority, second only to “jobs and the economy” at 26%. This increase corresponds strongly to the spike in COVID cases and positivity rates seen between June and October.

  • Overall negativity about the state’s direction and concerns about COVID have likely impacted the approval ratings of statewide elected leaders.

    • Governor Kevin Stitt’s approval rating has declined from 59% in June to 50% in October, with 38% now disapproving of his job performance. While that represents a dip in popularity for the governor, he remains the most popular elected official in our survey.

    • Sen. James Lankford, who had a 54% approval rating in June, saw his approval dip to 46% in October, with 33% saying they now disapprove of his job performance. Likewise, Sen. Jim Inhofe, saw his approval rating decline from 52% to 47%, with 33% disapproving of him.

    • On the federal level, Pres. Joe Biden and Vice Pres. Kamala Harris saw their limited popularity in Oklahoma decline further, with Biden falling from 42%/54% approve/disapprove in June to 34%/57% in October, and Harris falling from 40%/51% approve/disapprove to 31%/57%.

  • Sen. Lankford is in a commanding position in a Republican primary. Other GOP races are wide-open.

    • Sen. James Lankford has a commanding lead in a Republican primary over his declared challengers, Jackson Lahmeyer and State Sen. Nathan Dahm. While 62% of Republicans say they plan to vote for Lankford or lean towards voting for Lankford, just 21% say they will vote or lean towards voting for Lahmeyer and 3% say the same of Dahm.

    • Looking at the Republican primary election for attorney general, 33% of voters say they either will vote for Attorney General John O’Connor or lean towards voting for him, with 16% saying they either will vote or lean towards voting for 2020 AG candidate Gentner Drummond. While 43% of voters remain undecided, the results may be somewhat discouraging for Drummond, who nearly won election in 2020 and may have hoped to begin the race as the front-runner against O’Connor, a recent appointee who has never been on a statewide ballot.

    • Looking at the GOP primary race for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, Peggs Superintendent John Cox leads with 23% saying they will either vote for him or lean towards voting for him, with Secretary of Education Ryan Walters and Shawnee Superintendent April Grace both trailing him at 14% each. Cox is a former Democratic candidate for state superintendent and likely benefits from greater name ID than either of his declared opponents.

  • Oklahomans oppose or are split on government-backed COVID mandates, but support businesses right to require masks.

    • A majority of Oklahomans (54%) oppose the U.S. Department of Labor’s mandate on larger businesses to require COVID vaccinations. Opposition is driven by Republicans (74% oppose) and independents (51% oppose). Three-quarters of Democrats support the mandate.

    • Fifty percent of Oklahomans oppose government-backed mask mandates, with 47% supporting those mandates. Again, the partisan split is dramatic: 78% of Democrats and 51% of independents support mask mandates, compared to just 27% of Republicans.

    • Eighty-one percent of all voters, including 93% of Democrats, 82% of independents and 74% of Republicans support allowing local businesses to impose masking rules in their own establishments.

  • Oklahomans support commuting the sentence of death row inmate Julius Jones.*

    • Forty-six percent of Oklahomans have now heard of death row inmate Julius Jones, who has an Oct. 26 clemency hearing and a November 16 execution date. Sixty-one percent of all voters say the governor and the Oklahoma Pardon and Parole Board should commute his sentence to something other than death, with a majority of Democrats (81%) and independents (61%) as well as a plurality of Republicans (49%) saying they support commutation/clemency.

    • Support for Jones’ commutation/clemency rises among voters who say they have seen, read or heard about Julius’ case. Among those who have SRH of Jones, fully 67% of respondents say they support the governor and Parole Board commuting his sentence.

 

*Amber Integrated stands by the accuracy of these polling results; however, it should be noted we work in partnership with the Justice for Julius campaign.

Jackson Lisle